April Roundup: Your Foreign Policy Syllabus for the Next Few Months
Newsletter 020 -- Hegemony 101. Nationalization in Mexico. Pentagon Leaks. A Culture Report.
Whew!
This month’s newsletter was a true labor of love. With so much happening in the world all at once (and it’s felt like this for some time now) it was difficult, to decide what to highlight. But after intaking an absurd amount of news, and getting a little overwhelmed, I remembered that, in fact, all of this is connected — I just had to find the string that ties all of these events, in all of these places, happening to all of these people, together and then Id find the story. So we tried a couple of new things!
The newsletter this month is a long one and for that, we apologize. But trust me, it’s rich and juicy with detail and background about some of the foreign policy ideas and stories that we as a global community will be trudging through for the next few months (probably). For that reason, we really wanted to set you up for success. The goal was to make this month’s newsletter a resource and touchpoint you can come back to as things develop.
Alright — take your time, come back to this when you need to, and mostly, enjoy!
» Deep Dive: The Pentagon Leak
Early last month, a lower-ranking member of the intelligence community shared classified intelligence documents with his friends on Discord. By many accounts, this intelligence leak of more than 100 documents is said to be one of the biggest leaks in American history, and the intelligence found in these documents has been assessed as being more damaging than the Edward Snowden intelligence leak ten years ago. For those who don’t remember, Edward Snowden is an American citizen who leaked classified documents about the extent to which U.S. intelligence agencies were carrying out the surveillance of American citizens. He considers himself a whistleblower, but the American government deemed him a traitor so he sought asylum in Russia in 2013 and has been there ever since. This most recent intelligence leak broke around the same time Shou Chew (chief executive of Tik Tok) testified before Congress, as U.S. lawmakers sought to know whether China is collecting the data of American Tik Tok users and what China might do with that data if they are in fact collecting it. These are the two shadows I see looming over this news story. It doesn't take away from the enormous importance of this Pentagon leak to say that America has, for some time now, ignored its own cognitive dissonance around the morality of intelligence collecting and should be held to account for what kind of data they’re collecting and how. Now, let’s dive into a couple of the important highlights from this intelligence leak:
This Politico article gives an overall account of the incident and lays out what this intelligence leak put on the line for the American intelligence community, American allies, and our adversaries. The article includes interviews with members of the American intelligence community who relay the tense diplomatic fallout that has occurred because of this intelligence leak. Many of the relationships the U.S. has with its allies are in a state of turmoil as the documents reveal American efforts to spy on its allies. The nature of the documents gives adversaries and allies alike, insight into how and where America collects its intelligence – in effect compromising American sources. In extreme cases, lives have been put in danger. The Justice Department has opened up a criminal investigation into the situation and the Pentagon is carrying out an interagency effort to determine how this will impact our national security. — Alexis
This episode deals with the technical side of how the alleged source of the leak was found and what it took to backtrack through one person’s internet footprint to find the who, where, and why behind this leak. It was a solemn reminder that nothing we share on the internet is gone forever. — Alexis
As the world’s intelligence superpower, Anton La Guardia, the diplomatic editor at The Economist, reiterates that although there’s tension between the U.S. and its allies, allies will have to move past this if they want America to continue to share the intelligence information it gathers. For now, the countries affected are focused on damage control and trying to mitigate the fallout from the leak. — Alexis
After the Ukraine Documents Leak, Mainstream Media is Missing the Story
Intelligence about the war in Ukraine has been touted as the most salient collection of information found among the leaked documents. But here are a few other revelations that experts believe are just as important to note:
It was found that countries dependent on the U.S. financially and otherwise have been undermining the American government’s political interests.
The U.S. has been spying on its allies, including, most notably, the U.N. General Secretary. This is quite normal behavior (everyone spies on each other) but it’s embarrassing when it comes out in public.
When addressing the American people, Biden has been quite positive in his assessment of the Ukraine war, but the intelligence suggests that the prognosis of the war isn’t unequivocally positive for Ukraine as Biden has suggested.
Intelligence confirms that the U.S. and NATO do in fact have boots on the ground (approximately 97 special forces personnel) in Ukraine.
This article argues that the media and government institutions should be doing more to publicly and directly address what was found in the documents and how they’re going to mitigate the fallout. This is a situation where journalists are uniquely positioned to provide the public context to what these findings mean and hold officials accountable for creating a plan to address the fallout. Why didn’t the government tell the American public they were putting boots on the ground in Ukraine? What does it mean that other countries have been undermining American political interests and what does this mean for the safety of the American people? How does the Pentagon plan to protect our country’s sensitive information now? — Alexis
» Hegemony in the 21st Century
Mexico Hails "New Nationalization" as Iberdrola Sells $6bn of Power Assets and Pivots to US
In early April, Mexican President, Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador (AMLO), announced the purchase of 13 power plants from the Spanish-owned energy company, Iberdrola. At the beginning of his presidency, AMLO promised to nationalize the country’s mining and energy sector, along with the lithium reserves in the Sonoran desert – this move is one that makes good on his promise. The deal would give Mexico’s state-owned energy company, the Federal Electricity Commission, a 55.5% share of the electricity markets. The plants sold in the deal represent about 80% of Iberdrola’s energy assets in Mexico. For years AMLO has been levying fines against Iberdrola for things like allegedly breaking the law and selling power to its partner companies (Iberdrola was able to successfully appeal against this ruling). In many of AMLO’s addresses to the nation, he has likened Iberdrola’s control over Mexico’s resources to the Spanish conquistadors of the 16th century. He has even threatened to pause diplomatic relations with Spain over what he deems as ‘neo-colonial’ actions by the foreign energy company. This article details what nationalization would mean for the country economically. But what I’d prefer to look at is the diplomatic dominos AMLO has pushed over with this decision. Mexico is a party to the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) which is a trade deal that succeeded NAFTA in 2020. The USMCA prohibits favoring domestic companies over those from the other member states and because of this, the Biden administration has filed an objection accusing Mexico of discriminating against U.S. companies by favoring their state-owned oil companies. But this isn’t the only trade dispute the U.S. and Mexico are in: the U.S. is threatening a trade retaliation due to Mexico’s ban on importing genetically modified agricultural products due to the health risks they pose. Prior to the ban, the U.S. was exporting 17 million tons of GMO corn to Mexico. Although these decisions have put a strain on the country’s trade relationships with the U.S, ironically, the CFO of Iberdrola, Jose Sainz Armada has gone on record saying that Iberdrola isn’t leaving Mexico entirely and that he believes their deal will lead to the company having a much better relationship with the Mexican government moving forward. — Alexis
"A lot of this is a function of age, Trump is unusual for his generation in the sense that people of that age range tend to be much more bought in, on the Republican and Democrat side, to the kind of blobby, post-Cold War order. People who are younger…they have a sort of baseline sense that this was not a successful experiment. So, time will improve it, but we don’t have a lot of time. That’s the problem." – (Elbridge Colby, former defense strategist during the Trump administration)
This is a great conversation about hegemony. For the first time in modern history, the U.S. (the preeminent hegemonic power for the last 150 years) has an economic peer – China. And in a number of instances were seeing these two global muscles battle for hegemonic power, but what does having that power really mean? In this episode, they present a number of ideas and frameworks for rethinking how we might live with a new form of hegemony and they discuss what these new frameworks would mean for the U.S. and China. — Alexis
A look at China’s recent diplomatic outreach to Brazilian, French, and Saudi leaders. Colombia University professor, Jeffery Sachs, discusses the significance of this shift and what China’s quest for multipolarity really means. As Sachs sees it, China doesn't want a U.S.-led world (the current global standard) but a multipolar world; meaning a world order in which the U.S. and China exist and power-share alongside each other. — Alexis
Joe Biden Cant Seek Peace in Ukraine Without Antiwar Movement
In another play for the title of hegemonic power, China has been on a global campaign to show the world its diplomatic proficiency – beginning with the China-brokered truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign policy experts say the Saudi-Iranian truce will likely lead to the de-escalation of the war in Yemen, which has been raging since 2014. This showcased China’s diplomatic acumen and touted its ability to act as a trusted third-party negotiator who can yield results from historically obstinate, and difficult-to-work-with global leaders. Now, China has its sights set on establishing a peaceful diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine war. China’s peace plan was dismissed earlier this month by NATO but was received somewhat positively by Putin and Zelensky. The fact that China’s proposed peace plan has peaked Russian and Ukrainian interest in following through with their stated interest in peace negotiations places the U.S. in a difficult position. It must now come up with a peace plan of its own, garner the trust of important stakeholders to win out over China as the trusted third-party negotiator. Then, successfully broker for peace. The problem is, the U.S. doesn’t have the contemporary track record that would prove its diplomatic capabilities as being significantly better than China, such that it would deem it the automatic choice. "It's also a reminder of the way that the US government's chronic divestment in diplomatic capacity left it weaker on the world stage…Washington's many years of resorting to military and otherwise coercive measures to get its way, along with its abandonment of neutrality, had left it seemingly barren of influence in a region it has dominated for decades…” (article quote). In this look at how the U.S. might position itself as the choice for a third-party negotiator in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, the Quincy Institute suggests 1) the U.S. engage ideas from the antiwar movement which would offer Biden the political room he needs to maneuver among American powerbrokers and gain the support of American citizens in having a more hands-on role in the conflict, and 2) the Institute lays out what support the U.S. could offer Zelensky that would allow him to gain the support he needs to balk hard-liners at home who are intent on yielding nothing, at grave cost to Ukrainian citizens. — Alexis
» The Culture Report
New Mexico is Losing a Form of Spanish Spoken Nowhere Else on Earth
Language tells an intricate story of history, lineage, and culture and one language can have many different dialects, accents, and slang. This makes it possible to pinpoint what city or province a person is from by the way they speak. Because language is so deeply intrinsic to who we are as people, its erasure can mean the erasure of identity and tradition. When New Mexico was annexed into the United States in 1848, a unique form of Spanish began to take shape, and over the decades it has flourished. It is a mix of Spanish, adopted from Spanish colonists, English, and the Indigenous languages of the area. It is not widely understood by native Spanish speakers because it is so unique to New Mexico. However, after nearly two centuries, because of immigration, a forced exodus due to economic and environmental reasons, and a lack of interest from younger generations, the language is being spoken less and less. A language contains valuable information about the community’s history, including beliefs, practices, and ways of life. So, when a language is lost, this knowledge is also lost, making it difficult to preserve and pass on the history of that people to future generations. It’s as if that history never existed, which is devastating to imagine. Because language is tied to an individual's sense of self and identity when it’s lost, the older generation can experience a sense of grief, and shame. They may even begin to feel disconnected from their larger community and cultural heritage. Many New Mexican elders who speak this form of Spanish feel like they’ve failed their community because they were unable to pass the language on to the next generation. — Sarah
Indian Textbooks Purge of Muslim History and Hindu Extremism
India’s current ruling party, led by PM Modi, is using a widely used tactic to distort history – rewriting history textbooks. This month, students in India were issued completely new history and politics books in which the parts of the country’s history that are not conducive to the Hindu Nationalist agenda were removed. For example, the over 300 years of Mughal Empire rule are no longer mentioned in textbooks. This predominantly Muslim dynasty was one of the most powerful to rule over the subcontinent and certainly the longest-ruling empire. The Mughal Empire left a significant impact on India, and its legacy can still be seen today in various aspects of Indian culture and society. The Mughals helped spread the Persian language and culture throughout India, which had a significant impact on Indian literature and poetry. The empire also brought crucial economic growth and development to India. The empire's trade with other countries, most notably Europe, helped to boost India's economy. It is crucial to recognize the contributions of this empire because part of this current effort of state-sanctioned Islamophobia is to erase the fundamental contributions of Muslims. Here in the U.S., rewriting historical accounts, and leaving out the contributions, and history of other ethnic groups, in order to center white history has been a practice since its inception. These practices have far-reaching and long-lasting consequences. When important parts of history are purposefully left out, students are not given the opportunity to engage with the full scope of humanity. Presenting a limited, and frankly, incorrect version of history doesn’t set students up for success, nor does it teach them how to analyze different viewpoints. Students should be exposed to a range of ideas and perspectives that broaden their understanding of the world. It is essential for developing critical thinking skills. But when only one group’s history is shared, students never learn about the duality of life and society. This attempt to control the narrative and suppress certain histories in order to maintain power and control is extremely dangerous and is, unfortunately, happening all over the world. — Sarah
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Saudi Arabia’s new MegaCity called the NEOM project may bring economic benefits to Saudi Arabia, and tourists, particularly Westerners, will be drawn to the futuristic and luxurious aspects of the city, but the project is not without its critics. The project has been controversial due to concerns about its environmental impact, possible human rights and labor exploitation, and the community displacement it's causing. — Sarah
Festivals Are a Form of Defiance for the West African Cities Facing Terror
Now that Americans have made it through both weekends of Coachella, it’s a great time to reflect on the cultural importance festivals of this magnitude hold. — Alexis
» Updates
Back in 2019, a popular revolution ousted then-Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir. The military held power in the interim while they entered into negotiations with the burgeoning political party, The Forces of Freedom and Change. The negotiations were held to discuss how to carry out peaceful transitions of power but the Sudanese people who had organized the revolution didn’t feel that the negotiations met their simple demands. Namely, they demanded the immediate exit of the military and a transfer of power to the civilian government. Activists say the negotiations, which in effect bestowed legitimacy on the military’s power, led to this moment of conflict. — Alexis
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In Solidarity,
The 823 Team